Transport Infrastructure Connectivity and Conflict Resolution : A Machine Learning Comparison of Developed and Developing Countries

Transport infrastructure connectivity (TIC) has strong endogeneity issues, which makes it difficult to directly assess its impact on local conflict resolution. This study takes a position into the dispute about the two-edged effects of TIC in the process of peace and stabilization, and compares developing and developed countries to highlight the importance of sound institutions in conflict resolution. Based on global conflict data from 2010 to 2017, this paper adopts a series of machine learning and natural experiment methods to investigate the impact of TIC on global conflict resolution. The empirical results show that:(1) TIC can significantly improve countries’ global ranking for conflict resolution (an average of 6-13 ranking positions), and, in particular, the marginal benefit of developed countries is greater than the one of developing countries; (2) the mechanism behind this effect is the promotion of trade facilitation, a more balanced employment ratio across gender, and improved income levels through TIC, which further enhances the conflict governance capacity of countries. In light of the findings, policy making process should consider the opportunity to combine TIC with greater security for the realization of economic and social benefits, taking into account the significant opportunities for developing countries and the importance of balance across genders and income levels