Turkish Inflation Dynamics: New Keynesian Phillips Curve (2000-2013)

This study aims to analyse Turkish economy for the 2000-2012 term with emphasis on inflation dynamics within the framework of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC). The aim is to capture whether the inflation dynamics is explained by output gap and/or growth of output explanatory variables or alternatively by level or the rate of change of employment (and unemployment). Price equations are estimated in the form of New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) by GMM methodology following unit root tests. There is hysteresis effect in price dynamics and past levels of output effect current inflation. There is hardly any supporting pattern for employment/unemployment level or rate of change variables upto second order lags having any explanatory power for the price inflation dynamics of Turkey. However the study will be extended by new explanatory variables (like marginal cost index, different expected inflation proxy variables etc).