Un modèle à équations simultanées du cycle des bureaux en région parisienne

This paper presents a simultaneous-equation model for the Paris Region office market in 1994-2008. We determine the market’s supply/demand relationship by combining net absorption, the vacancy rate, real rents, and the volume of office construction starts. We then simulate office-market cycles according to different employment hypotheses up to 2020. The results show that the Paris Region employment cycle determines the cycle of office-market fundamentals. Interest rates have a limited impact on the decisions of property-market players.