Uncertainty of Outcome and Super 12 Rugby Union Attendance : Application of a General-to-Specific Modeling Strategy

This paper investigates the determinants of attendance at New Zealand matches in the Super 12 rugby union competition in 1999 to 2001. Emphasis is placed on testing the effects of within-season and match uncertainty of outcome on demand. A general-to-specific model selection approach, using Hendry and Krolzig's automated procedures, is applied to a general model that includes potential economic and sporting demand determinants. The results suggest that factors with a statistically significant effect on attendance mainly reflect habit and tradition, such as previous attendance and traditional rivalries, or are beyond the control of administrators, such as rainfall and team placings