Understanding Deregulation in the Illinois Electric Market Using Multiple Linear Regression and the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index

In Illinois, Alternative Residential Electric Suppliers (ARES) cost consumers an estimated $800 million since 2015 through disadvantageous contracts and other aspects of their business model (CUB 2020). In this paper, I use multiple linear regression (MLR) to determine if deregulation has benefited Illinois consumers. I find that contrary to proponents of energy choice, deregulation fails to lower residential electricity prices in Illinois. However, deregulation alone cannot explain rising electricity costs. I build off these conclusions to recommend stronger consumer protections, heavier oversight of ARES, and the potential reversal of deregulation as policy choices