Understanding policy in the great recession: Some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic
I use the valuation equation of government debt to understand fiscal and monetary policy in and following the great recession of 2008-2009. I also examine policy alternatives to avoid deflation, and how fiscal pressures might lead to inflation. I conclude that the central bank may be almost powerless to avoid deflation or inflation; that an eventual fiscal inflation can come well before large deficits or monetization are realized, and that it is likely to come with stagnation rather than a boom.
Year of publication: |
2011
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Authors: | Cochrane, John H. |
Published in: |
European Economic Review. - Elsevier, ISSN 0014-2921. - Vol. 55.2011, 1, p. 2-30
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Publisher: |
Elsevier |
Keywords: | Inflation Deflation Fiscal theory of the price level |
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