Understanding potential for battery electric vehicle adoption using large-scale consumer profile data

Ten U.S. states have set mandated sales targets for zero-emission vehicles that could result in significant reductions in fuel consumption and carbon emissions. Battery electric vehicle (BEV) adoption is considered integral to achieving this mandate and thus a better understanding of potential BEV buyers is needed. Because of limitations of stated-preference surveys, we developed a data mining approach to identify potential buyers using revealed-preference data. We apply the approach to a nationally representative survey of 88,404 new car buyers that includes respondents' geographic, demographic and psychographic characteristics. We find that BEVs have the potential to reach an annual U.S. market share of 2.4%. To achieve this, BEVs with added features must be sold at a lower price. The costs of the improved features combined with the eventual removal of purchase subsidies will offset the forecasted declines in battery costs. BEVs face stiff competition from fuel-efficient gasoline vehicles and thus policies promoting their sales such as the fuel economy standards may reduce BEV's growth.