Univariate Time-Series Modelling of UK Farmland Prices

This research employs univariate time series modelling approach to assess the dynamics of UK farmland prices. The RICS/RAU Farmland Price Index for England and Wales is selected as a dependent variable. The techniques used include Single Exponential Smoothing, Holt’s Linear Trend and ARMA models. Regardless of the limitations attached to a univariate time-series modelling approach, the estimates suggest that UK farmland prices are forecastable. These results could be employed by property market participants to gauge the future direction of UK farmland prices in the short-term.