Use of Input-Output Tables in the Analysis of Structural Changes: The Case of Bulgaria

This paper addresses issues related to the process of restructuring of the Bulgarian economy during the transition period. The analysis, based on the use of input-output tables, reveals various aspects of economic activity in their interconnection. As the economy evolves over time the structure of output changes, reflecting both the changing pattern of demand and advances in technology. Shifts in production in turn influence employment and wages and therefore have important implications for economic policy. The assessment of the impact of the structural changes on economic development is particularly relevant to the case of Bulgaria as the country has recently come out of deep recession, combined with high inflation and interest rate volatility. A new stabilisation programme was introduced in the middle of 1997, the cornerstone of which was the currency board arrangement. A number of measures in the area of trade and price liberalisation were undertaken. Though some adjustment has already taken place, the major restructuring of the economy is still to come as a result of the anticipated large-scale privatisation and liquidation of non-viable enterprises.