USEFULNESS OF PLACEMENT-WEIGHT DATA IN FORECASTING FED CATTLE MARKETINGS AND PRICES

In 1996, the USDA began reporting cattle-on-feed placements in various weight groups, which should provide information regarding expected slaughter timings and improve fed cattle price forecasts and marketing strategies. Private data were collected to obtain the necessary degrees of freedom to test statistical relationships between placement weight distributions, beef supply, and fed cattle prices. Use of placement weights improved beef supply forecasts only at a one-month horizon; it contributed nothing to price forecast accuracy or returns from selectively hedging.