Using attitudes, age and gender to estimate an adolescent’s substance use risk

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a strategy for estimating an individual’s risk of alcohol, cigarette and cannabis use that relies on an assessment of an adolescent’s age, gender and attitude. Design/methodology/approach The authors assembled surveys from 35,987 11-17 year-olds from 36 databases to examine the relationship between attitude and behaviour. Findings Attitudes were strongly correlated with concurrent use of alcohol, drunkenness, smoking and cannabis, with correlations of −0.555, −0.517, −0.552 and −0.476, respectively. Logistic regression provided a means for using age, gender and attitudes to estimate an individual’s risk of engaging in substance use behaviour. Developmental changes in attitudes were estimated by analysing changes in scores associated with percentile rankings for each age and gender group. Projected year-to-year changes in attitude were used as a heuristic for estimating future risk. Research limitations/implications Analyses relied on cross-sectional panel data. Analyses would benefit from longitudinal data in which age-related changes in attitudes could be more precisely modelled. Practical implications Information about estimated current and future risk may prove useful for motivating the adoption and implementation of effective prevention approaches by parents and care providers. Originality/value The authors present a novel method for estimating an individual’s risk of substance use knowing attitude, age and gender.