USING ELICITED CHOICE PROBABILITIES TO ESTIMATE RANDOM UTILITY MODELS: PREFERENCES FOR ELECTRICITY RELIABILITY

When choice data are not available, researchers studying preferences sometimes ask respondents to state the actions they would choose in choice scenarios. Data on stated choices are then used to estimate random utility models, as if they are data on actual choices. Stated and actual choices may differ because researchers typically provide respondents less information than they would have in actuality. Elicitation of choice probabilities overcomes this problem by permitting respondents to express uncertainty about behavior. This article shows how to use elicited choice probabilities to estimate random utility models and reports estimates of preferences for electricity reliability. Copyright (2010) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.