Using Fiscal Ratios to Predict Local Fiscal Distress

We will collect audited financial and socioeconomic data for a large sample of local governments between 2008 and 2016 to create a fiscal scoring system for cities and counties based on our previous work, work done by Pew and the leading academics. City and county scores will be reported on a 0-100 scale, with clearly delineated distressed and non-distressed ranges. The objective of the scoring system is to classify local governments based on their fiscal health (ranging from adequate to severely distressed). The classification scheme will have strong face validity, will be methodologically rigorous and defendable to academic and practitioner audiences; and will be replicable from year to year