Using Fractional Discrete Verhulst Model to Forecast Fujian's Electricity Consumption in China

Electricity consumption is China's main energy consumption and an important indicator of economic performance. Forecasting electricity consumption plays an increasingly important role in economic development. In order to solve this problem, a fractional order discrete Verhulst model was proposed to predict electricity consumption in China. Firstly, a new model is established by combining fractional accumulating generation operator and discrete Verhulst model. The calculation formula of the new model is derived based on grey modeling method. Secondly, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to obtain the order with the smallest average relative error. Finally, the proposed model is applied to the electricity consumption forecast in Fujian. Compare the new model with fractional GM(1,1) model and fractional Verhulst model. The results show that the new model has a better fitting prediction effect