VAR Analysis on the relationship between consumer price index, real interest and exchange rate : the case of Turkey

The study aims to examine the relationships between variables from different perspectives by using Turkey's Real exchange rate (TL/USD), Real interest rate and Consumer price index data. Data from 2012M7 to 2021M12 were used in the study. In order to examine the relationships between the variables, seasonality tests and stationarity studies, which are among the time series analysis methods, were performed. Then, the model was estimated within the scope of VAR Analysis, the compatibility of the model with the real data was checked, the validity and reliability tests of the model were made and the residuals were examined. Inter-variable Impact Response Function and Variance Decomposition statistics are discussed for the model that meets all assumptions. The use of current data in the study and the use of graphics for qualitative evaluation contributed to the literature. As a result of this study, it has been determined that the consumer price index moves independently of other variables, and there is a limited relationship between exchange rate and real interest in every respect. In the first part of the study, the introduction and the theoretical framework are discussed. In the second part, the literature is examined, and in the third part, the methods and applications used in the study are given. The last part is the conclusion and discussion.