Visualising the school-to-work transition: an analysis using optimal matching

This paper explores the school-to-work transition in the UK with the aim of achieving a richer understanding of individuals\\\' choices and activities in the ve years after�reaching school-leaving age. Through the technique of `optimal matching', we assess the�degree of similarity between individuals' post-16 experiences in a way that captures the�full detail of their five-year histories. We consider individuals reaching school-leaving�age between 1991 and 2003 and, on the basis of the measures of similarity, identify a small number of distinct transition patterns. Our results suggest that while 9 out of�10 young people have generally positive experiences post-16, the remaining individuals�exhibit a variety of histories that might warrant policy attention. We assess the extent�to which characteristics at age 16 can predict which type of trajectory a young person will follow. Our results confirm the predictive power of school attainment (grades),�family background (parental qualifications, parental and sibling labour market status)�and gender. These characteristics are known to be strongly correlated across individuals and raise concerns about the degree of socio-economic�polarisation in the transition�from school to work.