Wage response to global production links : evidence for workers from 28 European countries (2005-2014)

By using very rich individual-level data on workers from 28 European countries, we provide the first so extensive cross-country assessment of wage response to global production links within global value chains (GVCs) in the period 2005-2014. Unlike the other studies, we (i) address the importance of backward links in globally integrated production structures (capturing imports of goods and services required in any stage of the production of the final product); (ii) measure the occupational task profile of workers with new country-specific indices of routinisation; (iii) compare the impact of global production links on wages between workers from Western, Central–Eastern, and Southern Europe employed in manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors; and (iv) account for direct and indirect dependence on GVC imports from developing and high-income countries. We consider the potential endogeneity problems. Our results suggest that global import intensity of production exhibits negative pressure on wages in Europe. This effect mainly concerns workers from Western Europe employed in manufacturing and is driven by production links with non-high-income countries. Our counterfactual estimates suggest that the effect for all of Europe is small, but the pressure of GVC imports on wages in Western Europe is not economically negligible, in particular when inputs are from less developed countries including China.