Wars, Presidents, and Popularity : The Political Cost(s) of War Re-Examined

Extensive research demonstrates that war casualties depress incumbent popularity. The present study argues that one should also account for financial costs of wars, since a) such costs are substantial; b) such costs are publicly observed and understood; and c) fiscal policy affects incumbents' approval ratings. Empirical evidence using U.S. data for the period between 1948 and 2008 supports this theoretical claim: pecuniary costs of warfare either directly affect presidential popularity (e.g., in the Korean War) or their inclusion affects the predicted political cost of war casualties (e.g., in the Korean and Iraq/Afghanistan wars). Interestingly, the adverse effect of war spending is strongest under favorable economic conditions (i.e., low unemployment)