What caused the equity withdrawal mechanism? An investigation using threshold cointegration and error correction

This work investigates the mortgage equity withdrawal mechanism in the US economy from an empirical perspective. Using the threshold cointegration test of Enders and Siklos (2001), which allows for asymmetric adjustment, we find a cointegrating relationship among mortgage equity withdrawal, house prices and interest rates. In particular, we find that the speed of adjustment towards equilibrium is highly persistent above the appropriate estimated threshold, namely in the presence of favourable news. This finding is consistent with the theory of habit formation (Duesenberry, 1949) and conspicuous consumption (Veblen, 1899). Furthermore, this result helps to understand the complex issue of the consumption boom of the late 1990s.