What Explains the Success or Failure of Structural Adjustment Programmes?

This paper analyses the causes of success or failure of adjustment programmes, using a new database on 220 reform programmes. We find that the success or failure of reform depends on domestic political-economy forces. A few donor-effort variables are also highly correlated with the probability of success. However, once these effort variables are treated as endogenous, there is no relationship between any of them and the success or failure of reform. These results have clear implications for how the international community should approach policy-based aid.