What's Behind "Inflation Perceptions"? A Survey-Based Analysis of Italian Consumers

This study investigates inflation perceptions, and their relationship with factors likely to affect them, through a survey of a representative sample of Italian consumers. The results show that reported inflation is, on average, much higher than measured by official statistics. Inflation perceptions are higher for women, the unemployed and less educated individuals, as well as for consumers with some forms of financial distress. A very low knowledge of the inflation concept and related statistics and an inaccurate memory of past prices turn out to play a significant role in explaining the highest class of perceptions. These results suggest that when consumers express their opinions on what they report as “inflation”, they are incorporating a complex combination of forces that go well beyond the phenomena measured by official inflation statistics.