What's the Worth of a Promise? Evaluating the Long-Term Indirect Effects of a Program to Reduce Early Marriage in India

One important dimension of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs apart from its conditionality is the provision of continuous frequency of payouts. On the contrary, the “Apni Beti Apna Dhan” program, implemented in the state of Haryana in India from 1994 to 1998 offers a “promised” amount to female beneficiaries redeemable only after attaining 18 years of age if she remains unmarried. This paper assesses the impact of this intervention that depended on the assured financial transfer on outcomes not directly associated with the conditionality. In particular, we first examine long-term indirect effects on educational outcomes. Further, we assess the impact on labor participation, autonomy, and age at marriage apart from its potential effects on intergenerational spillover and marital decisions. Exploiting the exogenous variation in the birth year of females born when the program was implemented and utilizing multiple large-scale representative datasets, we find significant improvements in completed years of educational attainment along with gains in completion of secondary and higher secondary education. However, no discernible effects are observed on labor participation, time allocation for leisure, socialization or self-care, post-marital empowerment indicators, pregnancy, and inter-generational health indicators. While under-age marriage has reduced significantly, the likelihood of marriage after receiving the transfers at 18 or 19 years is found to have increased, indicating failure of the program in altering the prevailing gender norms but plausible utilization of program transfer for marital purposes. We provide suggestive evidence of the money and the associated educational gains being used to ensure grooms of higher social status. Accordingly, the paper recommends a set of complementary potential policy instruments that include altering gender norms through behavioral interventions, skill development, and incentives to encourage female work participation, especially in regions with deep-routed gender norms