What We Cannot Learn from the Irish Experience: A fundamental Asymmetry of Asymmetric Shocks

A simple N-country specific-factor model with imperfectly mobile labour is developed. It is shown that effects of country-specific productivity shocks hitting a small country are fundamentally asymmetric. A positive shock will be accomodated by a moderate wage increase and sizable in-migration, whereas a negative shock will be accomodated by a significant decrease in wages and moderate out-migration. The effects of shocks in a monetary union are discussed, and it is argued that the results are consistent with the recent Irish experience. The welfare effects of small economics fluctuations are also discussed.