When to Get In and Out of Dairy Farming: A Real Option Analysis

The Dixit entry/exit real option model was applied to the entry/exit decisions of New York dairy farmers. For the cost structure of a 500-cow farm the entry milk price is $17.52 per hundredweight (cwt.) and the exit milk price is $10.84. For the 50-cow farm cost structure the entry price is higher at $23.71 per cwt., and the exit price is also higher at $13.48. If infinite numbers of representative farms enter and exit at these prices, the price of milk should range between $13.48 and $17.52 per cwt.