With a Grain of Salt : Uncertain Veracity of External News and Firm Disclosures

We examine how uncertain veracity of external news influences investor beliefs, market prices and corporate disclosures. Despite assuming independence between the news' veracity and the firm’s endowment with private information, we find that favorable news is taken “with a grain of salt” in equilibrium—more precisely, perceived as less likely veracious—which reinforces investor beliefs that nondisclosing managers are hiding disadvantageous information. Hence more favorable external news could paradoxically lead to lower market valuation. That is, amid management silence, stock prices may be non-monotonic in the positivity of external news. In line with mounting empirical evidence, our analysis implies asymmetric price reactions to news and price declines following firm disclosures. We further predict that external news that is more likely veracious may increase or decrease the probability of disclosure and link these effects to empirically observable characteristics.Earlier version of this paper is available here: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3994932