Working Paper 03-12 - Track record of the FPB’s short-term forecasts : An update

The Federal Planning Bureau is responsible, within the National Accounts Institute, for producing the macroeconomic forecasts that are used to set up the federal government budget. This working paper presents an update of the ex post assessment of the quality of these forecasts. Compared to the previous working papers devoted to this topic, the analysis is extended in several ways. Firstly, the number of variables examined is markedly increased, as is the number of statistical tests. Secondly, an evaluation of the quality of the quarterly forecasts is presented for the first time. In addition, this information is used to calculate the probability distribution of these forecasts and to construct a so‐called “fan chart”.