Working Paper 166 - Misalignment of Real Effective Exchange Rates: When Should the Franc CFA be Devalued Again?

The main objective of this article is to test the basis of the rumours that have been circulating since late 2011 about the devaluation of the Franc CFA (CFAF). We have used the analyticial framework pioneered by Combes and Plane (2007) and Couharde et al (2011) to calculate the real effective exchange rate and the percentage of the misalignment of the CFAF relative to this equilibrium value. During the period 2001/11, we confirm the trend of the overvaluation of the CFAF which fed the rumours. However, we conclude that there is no reason to proceed with an immediate devaluation of the CFAF because the misalignment is not very significant and the shock could have adverse effects on the economies of the CFAF zone, as was the case in 1994. Furthermore, the trend towards overvaluation is likely to persist, given the poor performance of European economies. This should lead the monetary authorities of the Franc zone to question the future of their fixed exchange rates that bind them to the Euro zone leaving them with an uncertain future. This article recommends the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime that should be adjustable, based on clear, transparent rules that are known to all in advance.