Effective responses to the COVID-19 pandemic require integrating behavioral factors such as risk-driven contact reduction, improved treatment, and adherence fatigue with asymptomatic transmission, disease acuity, and hospital capacity. We build one such model and estimate it for all 92 nations...

Essay 1- Effects of Feedback Delay on Learning. Learning figures prominently in many theories of organizations. Understanding barriers to learning is therefore central to understanding firms' performance. This essay investigates the role of time delays between taking an action and observing the...

With so many possible choices, why do managers adopt the strategies they do? We identify delays between adopting a strategy and observing the full implications of that choice as a critical factor influencing strategic choices. Using a realistic simulation of a service firm, we conduct a...

When is it better to use agent based (AB) models, and when should differential equation (DE) models be used? Where DE models assume homogeneity and perfect mixing within compartments, AB models can capture heterogeneity in agent attributes and in the network of interactions among them. Using...

Projecting the course of infectious diseases and assessing the likely impact of policies to contain them require reliable estimates of the parameters in dynamic models of disease transmission. However, such estimation is difficult, especially for emerging diseases such as COVID-19, due to...

Long-term forecasts are hard, but also indispensable in personal and policy planning. How could long-term predictions of complex phenomena, such as COVID-19 contagion, be enhanced? While much effort has gone into building predictive models of the pandemic, some have argued that early exponential...

Prior studies of academic science have largely focused on researchers in life sciences or engineering. However, while academic researchers often work under similar institutions, norms, and incentives, they vary greatly in how they organize their research efforts across different scientific...

Several case studies suggest that firms targeting mass-market services can align profitability with jobs offering a living wage, stable schedules, and engaging work. Yet few do. To understand this puzzle, we draw on theories of firms as systems of interdependent choices. Building on a few cases,...

Unstable schedules—hours that are inadequate, unpredictable (i.e., deviate from scheduled hours), or that vary from week to week—hurt employees. We examine whether they also affect financial performance. Using 52 weeks of data from over 1,000 stores and more than 15,000 employees of a...