A provocative paper by Shimer (2001) finds that state-level youth shares and unemployment rates are negatively correlated, in contrast to conventional assumptions about demographic effects on labor markets. This paper updates Shimer's regressions and shows that this surprising correlation...

A large literature attempts to explain the asymmetric behavior of job destruction and job creation over the business cycle. This paper contends that much of this asymmetry is spurious. Analyzing gross flows in relation to the net flow virtually eliminates cyclical asymmetry in annual data and...

The US unemployment rate has drifted higher since early 2023, even though growth in payroll employment has been strong over this period. Some commentators have noted that the puzzle of rising unemployment amid rapid hiring can be explained by a large increase in immigration, which would raise...