This paper explains how the Gibbs sampler can be used to perform Bayesian inference on GARCH models. Although the Gibbs sampler is usually based on the analytical knowledge of the full conditional posterior densities, such knowledge is not available in regression models with GARCH errors. We...

This note describes the matching procedure used to construct panel data sets from the 1987, 1989 and 1991 Hungarian Household Budget servey samples.

This paper considers the Bayesian analysis of threshold regression models. It shows that this analysis can be conducted with simple deterministic numerical integration in one or two dimensions. The shape of the posterior density is greatly determined by the type of threshold and of transition...

We derive the most probable distribution of resources for a simple society. We find that a probabilistic analysis forbids both too much and too less equity, and selects instead a minimally ordered state. We give the detailed calculations for a special model where the population and resources are...

Tom Swift, who began his career with factor analysis (1967) , is pleased to announce that the “1973 Tom Swift Award for Data Abuse” has been won by LeRoy Stone and James Brosseau. They originally (Stone, et al., 1973) used 115 variables in a stepwise regression analysis to explain...

This paper argues that the tradtitional way of gauging a country's fiscal policy stance by looking at government budget deficit or cyclically adjusted budget deficits is misleading in the case of China, since a lot of what usually would be considered fiscal policy is conducted via investment by...