Young Lives is a longitudinal research project investigating the changing nature of childhood poverty. The study is tracking the development of 12,000 children in Ethiopia, Peru, India (Andhra Pradesh) and Vietnam through qualitative and quantitative research over a 15-year period. Since 2002,...

The theoretical literature gives conflicting predictions on how bank competition should affect financial stability, and dozens of researchers have attempted to evaluate the relationship empirically. We collect 598 estimates of the competition-stability nexus reported in 31 studies and analyze...

This paper discusses regression models with aggregated covariate data. Reparameterized likelihood function is found to be separable when one endogenous variable corresponds to one instrument. In that case, the full-information maximum likelihood estimator has an analytic form, and thus...

Using Bayesian maximum likelihood and data for Portugal, I estimate a New Keynesian DSGE model allowing for the presence of non-Ricardian households and test the stability of the model's prediction when the fraction of liquidity-constrained households changes. In particular, I assess the impacts...

This paper addresses the estimation of the nonparametric conditional moment restricted model that involves an infinite-dimensional parameter g0. We estimate it in a quasi-Bayesian way, based on the limited information likelihood, and investigate the impact of three types of priors on the...

This chapter proposes an up-to-date review of estimation strategies available for the Bayesian inference of GARCH-type models. The emphasis is put on a novel efficient procedure named AdMitIS. The methodology automatically constructs a mixture of Student-t distributions as an approximation to...

We propose a Bayesian methodology that enables banks to improve their credit scoring models by imposing prior information. As prior information, we use coefficients from credit scoring models estimated on other data sets. Through simulations, we explore the default prediction power of three...

In this paper we consider bayesian semiparametric regression within the generalized linear model framework. Specifically, we study a class of autoregressive time series where the time trend is incorporated in a nonparametrically way. Estimation and inference where performed through Markov Chain...

This paper extends the analogy previously established by Leamer (1978a), between a Bayesian inference problem and an economics allocation problem, and shows that posterior modes can be interpreted as optimal outcomes of a bargaining game. This bargaining game, over a parameter value, is played...

Bayesian inference requires an analyst to set priors. Setting the right prior is crucial for precise forecasts. This paper analyzes how optimal prior changes when an economy is hit by a recession. For this task, an autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model is chosen. The results show that a...