In this paper we consider bayesian semiparametric regression within the generalized linear model framework. Specifically, we study a class of autoregressive time series where the time trend is incorporated in a nonparametrically way. Estimation and inference where performed through Markov Chain...

This paper extends the analogy previously established by Leamer (1978a), between a Bayesian inference problem and an economics allocation problem, and shows that posterior modes can be interpreted as optimal outcomes of a bargaining game. This bargaining game, over a parameter value, is played...

We propose a Bayesian methodology that enables banks to improve their credit scoring models by imposing prior information. As prior information, we use coefficients from credit scoring models estimated on other data sets. Through simulations, we explore the default prediction power of three...

This paper explores the quantitative implications of a class of endogenous growth models for cross-country income differences. These models exhibit international spillovers, no scale effects and conditional convergence, and thus they overcome some difficulties faced by the early generation of...

In developing countries, microfinance has been the darling of the development community, and in developed countries, microfinance fits well with Third Ways ideas. What are the challenges and opportunities for the attempt to replicate microfinance in the United States? This paper attempts to...

Objectives: The objectives of this empirical study are: firstly, to modify and extend the 'signals approach', developed by Kaminsky/Lizondo/Reinhart (1997) as an early warning system for currency crises, secondly, to apply it to transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe, and, thirdly,...

We develop a public choice model of the International Monetary Fund in which credit and conditionality are simultaneously determined by the demand for, and supply of, IMF credit. A graphical analysis illustrates the comparative statics in response to various shocks. We apply the model to explain...

The paper develops a Romer-type growth model with a research sector, a manufacturing sector, and a financial sector and shows that inflation has an adverse effect on economic growth. Higher inflation increases the incentives for agents to use money substitutes through financial services in an...

The work of Gwartney, Holcombe and Lawson (GHL, 1998) is cited in New Zealand debate to demonstrate that a larger government share of GDP is detrimental for economic growth. Their work is reassessed here. We find a number of omissions in their analysis lead to a considerable over- statement of...

In a classical article, Granger (1966) argued that the levels of most economic time series have spectra that exhibit a smooth declining shape with considerable power at very low frequencies. He termed it "the typical spectral shape of an economic variable." Granger's assertion has not been...