This assessment guide has been developed by the European Forum on the Security of Retail Payments, SecuRe Pay (the "Forum"), on the basis of the final "Recommendations for the security of internet payments" (the "Recommendations") published on the ECB's websiteon 31 January 2013. This assessment...

This report presents a set of recommendations to improve the security of internet payments. These recommendations were developed by the European Forum on the Security of Retail Payments, SecuRe Pay (the "Forum"). The Forum was set up in 2011 as a voluntary cooperative initiative between...

Over the past 15 years, the forecasting procedures and techniques used for the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections have been subject to many changes and improvements, all aimed at contributing to the monetary policy decision-making process. The projections, conditioned on a set of...

We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...

In the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the second quarter of 2023, expectations for headline HICP inflation in 2023 were revised down compared with the previous survey (conducted in the first quarter), while expectations for HICP inflation excluding food and energy (HICPX) in...

To mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a special survey was conducted in 2023 to explore the processes and methodologies underlying participants' forecasts. Participants were sent this fourth special survey on SPF forecast processes and methodologies in...

To mark the 25th anniversary of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), a special survey was conducted in 2023 to explore the processes and methodologies underlying participants' forecasts. Participants were sent this fourth special survey on SPF forecast processes and methodologies in...

In this paper, we exploit micro data from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) to examine the link between the characteristics of macroeconomic density forecasts (such as their location, spread, skewness and tail risk) and density forecast performance. Controlling for the effects of...

The aim of this paper is to assess whether the findings of Romer and Romer (2000) on the superiority of staff forecasts are still valid today. The paper uses both latest available econometric techniques as well as conventional tests. Several tests for forecast rationality show that a necessary...