Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) provides a coherent mechanism to address the problem of model uncertainty. In this paper we extend the BMA framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information...

This paper reviews recent advances in the specification and estimation of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive models (BVARs). After describing the Bayesian principle of estimation, we first present the methodology originally developed by Litterman (1986) and Doan et al. (1984) and review alternative...

This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data with endogenous regressors. Our empirical findings suggest that once model...

We propose using a Bayesian time-varying coefficient model estimated with Markov chain-Monte Carlo methods to measure contagion empirically. The proposed measure works in the joint presence of heteroskedasticity and omitted variables and does not require knowledge of the timing of the crisis. It...

This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...

This paper extends the Bayesian Model Averaging framework to panel data models where the lagged dependent variable as well as endogenous variables appear as regressors. We propose a Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA) methodology and then test it using simulated data. Simulation...

This Selected Issues paper analyzes the competitive threats to the tourism sector in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). The paper concludes that the ECCU countries have lost competitiveness globally and vis-à-vis newly emergent Caribbean tourist destinations as a result of both price...

This paper investigates the determinants of tourism demand in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union. We estimate the demand function in a panel setting using annual data from 1979 to 2005. Results show that tourism arrivals are significantly affected by economic developments in the source...

The Growth and Social Protection Strategy (GSPS) provides the framework for Dominica’s economic and social policies over the next five years and sets out the macroeconomic framework; the growth strategy, including the enabling environment for private enterprise and sectoral strategies;...

The report provides the details of the assessment on Mongolia’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. It describes the Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EGPRS), which presents main policy directions of the government with a focus on economic growth acceleration and poverty...