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Variable Selection and Inference for Multi-Period Forecasting Problems

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper conducts a broad-based comparison of iterated and direct multi-step forecasting approaches applied to both univariate and multivariate models. Theoretical results and Monte Carlo simulations suggest that iterated forecasts dominate direct forecasts when estimation error is a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756285

Forecasting Random Walks Under Drift Instability

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2011

This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different estimation windows. It develops theoretical results for random walks when their drift and/or volatility are subject to one or more structural breaks. It is shown that compared to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012756639

Optimal Taxation of Risky Human Capital

Jacobs, Bas - 2009

In a model with ex-ante homogenous households, earnings risk and a general earnings function, we derive the optimal linear labor tax rate and optimal linear education subsidies. The optimal income tax trades off social insurance against incentives to work and to invest in human capital....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012765194

Optimal Income Taxation in Unionized Labor Markets

Hummel, Albert Jan - 2018

This paper extends the Diamond (1980) model with labor unions to study optimal income taxation and to analyze whether unions can be desirable for income redistribution. Unions bargain with firms over wages in each sector and firms unilaterally determine employment. Unions raise the efficiency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012910614

Testing for Alpha in Linear Factor Pricing Models with a Large Number of Securities

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

This paper proposes a novel test of zero pricing errors for the linear factor pricing model when the number of securities, N, can be large relative to the time dimension, T, of the return series. The test is based on Student t tests of individual securities and has a number of advantages over...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012955752

Double-Question Survey Measures for the Analysis of Financial Bubbles and Crashes

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2017

belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets …-valued), and another regarding his/her expectations of the future price of that asset. Responses to these two questions are then … between the agents expectations of price changes and their asset valuation. Double question surveys on equity, gold and house …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012963776

Aggregation in Large Dynamic Panels

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

concludes with an empirical application to consumer price inflation in Germany, France and Italy, and re-examines the extent to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013038262

Should Pollution Taxes Be Targeted at Income Redistribution?

Jacobs, Bas - 2017

This paper analyses optimal corrective taxation and optimal income redistribution. Under general utility functions, the Pigouvian pollution tax is higher if pollution damages disproportionally hurt the poor due to equity weighting of pollution damages. Moreover, optimal pollution taxes should be...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948330

To Pool or Not to Pool : Revisited

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2015

This paper provides a new comparative analysis of pooled least squares and fixed effects estimators of the slope coefficients in the case of panel data models when the time dimension (T) is fixed while the cross section dimension (N) is allowed to increase without bounds. The individual effects...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013019853

Tests of Policy Ineffectiveness in Macroeconometrics

Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2014

This paper proposes tests of policy ineffectiveness in the context of macroeconometric rational expectations models. It is assumed that there is a policy intervention that takes the form of changes in the parameters of a policy rule, and that there are sufficient observations before and after...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050473