Preise auf Kapitalmärkten werden durch nicht-antizipierte Informationen getrieben. Eine zentrale Aussage Baysianischer Lernmodelle impliziert, dass die Stärke der Preisreaktion einerseits von der Höhe der nicht antizipierten Komponente abhängt, andererseits aber auch von der Präzision der...

An important claim of Bayesian learning and a standard assumption in price discovery models is that the strength of the price impact of unanticipated information depends on the precision of the news. In this paper, we test for this assumption by analyzing intra-day price responses of CBOT T-bond...

We analyze how markets adjust to new information when the reliability of news is uncertain and has to be estimated itself. We propose a Bayesian learning model where market participants receive fundamental information along with noisy estimates of news' precision. It is shown that the efficiency...

We explore the relationship between CDS premia and bond asset swap spreads on the samereference entity. As Duffie (1999) shows, there is a clear theoretical link between CDS premiaand bond prices if the two quantities are viewed as a pure measure of credit risk. However,many studies provide...

We examine the determinants and consequences of changes in hedge fund fee structures.We show that fee changes are asymmetric with much greater incidence of fee increasescompared to fee decreases. We find that managers of younger and smaller funds are morelikely to increase fees after good...

The trading of securities on multiple markets raises the question of each market’s sharein the discovery of the informationally efficient price. We exploit salient distributionalfeatures of multivariate financial price processes to uniquely determine these contributions.Thereby we resolve the...

Der steigende Informationsbedarf auf Finanzmärkten hat in den letzten Jahren zur Entstehungvon einer Vielzahl neuer Wirtschaftsindikatoren geführt. So werden in der Literatur übereinhundert verschiedene Indikatoren zur Inflationsprognose diskutiert, von denen jedoch nurwenige einen...

There is strong evidence that macroeconomic releases influence prices in financial markets. However, why do markets react to some announcements while they ignore others with a similar content? Based on a Bayesian learning model, we show that market impact is mainly determined by information...

Analysts providing more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable recommendations. We demonstrate how investors can profit from this contemporaneous link by differentiating between able and lucky analysts. In line with previous studies, we find that past track records alone are not...

We estimate the debt capacity of a firm as the critical debt ratio that causes a downgrade in creditworthiness. Unused debt capacities depict the temporal access to external debt funds and measure a firm's financial flexibility. Firms with high unused debt capacities realize a larger fraction of...