An exploration of the link between changes in the efficiency of the financial system and business cycle fluctuations.

An overview of an October 1993 conference that examined the costs, causes, and consequences of credit allocation by the federal government, covering both the broad rationale for government intervention in U.S. credit markets and a number of specific programs and regulations.

In the standard solution to the principal–agent problem, a risk-neutral agent bears all the risk. The author shows that, in fact, multiple solutions exist, and often the risk-neutral agent is not the sole bearer of risk. As risk aversion approaches zero, the unique risk-averse solution...

Since 1989, U.S. commercial banks have shifted their portfolios away from commercial loans toward government securities. Using data for individual banks, the authors document this shift and test for whether it can be attributed to the imposition of risk-based capital requirements. Their results...

An equilibrium analysis of how endogenously rising financial institutions, altering the impact of macroeconomic shocks, induce sluggishness in bank interest rates relative to other short-term rates.

A discussion of the reasons why it may be in a government agency's--and society's--best interest to be vague about policy objectives. Using the concept of "cheap talk," the author explains that when an agency faces a trade-off between precise and credible announcements, its best move may be to...

This article examines the stochastic properties of aggregate macroeconomic time series from the standpoint of fractionally integrated models, focusing on the persistence of economic shocks. The authors develop a simple macroeconomic model that exhibits long-range dependence, a consequence of...

Conventional wisdom on bank diversification confuses risk with failure. This article clarifies the distinction and shows how increasing bank size may increase bank risk, even though it lessens the probability of failure and lowers the expected loss. The key result is an application of...

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.

The recent record-setting economic expansion and the accompanying record-setting bull market in stocks are often attributed to Federal Reserve interest rate policy and increased productivity. But if interest rates behave differently when productivity changes, interest rate policy may need to...