In this paper we use a global vector autoregression (GVAR) model to study the response of Russian macroeconomic indicators to external shocks. The model includes individual models for the world's largest economies and a model for the oil market. Our specification takes into account the...

The relationship between the economies of various countries and their dependence on the world markets indicate that for econometric analysis of the impact of external shocks on a particular economy, it is necessary to use a model of the global economy. The aim of this paper is to build a global...

We continue publishing the four-part consultation of professor of Moscow School of Economics of Lomonosov MSU Dean Fantazzini. The first part, that appeared in 2 (10), 2008 of the journal, dealt with the introduction to the problem (section one: basic concepts and types of financial risks,...

Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity in-mean model allows accounting for both time-varying variance and risk premium in financial time series data. This paper introduces an extension of this particular model with more flexible parameterization of the way variance enters the...

A theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proven. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.

The theorem of existence of ruptures in the probability scale has been proved. The theorem can be used, e.g., in economics and forecasting. It can assist to solve paradoxes such as Allais paradox and the “four-fold-pattern” paradox and to create the correcting formula of forecasting.

Development of an economic situation last 20 years has passed in Latvia through various stages. Including - Post-Soviet re-structuring of demand and closing of industrial giants; development of the economy based on transit; development of craft manufacture, small enterprises and branch of...

The paper examines the world experience in stimulating economic development based on the creation of infrastructure. The effects on economic growth are found to be moderate. Building infrastructure boosts economic growth in the poorest countries, where infrastructure shortages are critical. For...

We conduct a comprehensive study of macroeconomic modeling methods, new theories of economic growth and the impact of technology and institutions on economic growth, in order to formulate the basic characteristics that are critical for efficient technological and institutional effects modeling....

Parallel calculations on modern multiprocessing technics open new opportunities in application of mathematical models for research ekonomy of region. Use of normative models was limited to complexity of their identification due to a lot of unknown parameters. In work the technique of...