Este trabajo presenta una estimación de los efectos de cambios en la estructura demográfica en las tendencias de medio plazo de las principales variables macroeconómicas. Para ello se utilizan datos de panel de 21 economías de la OCDE que, mediante un VAR, permiten cuantificar tanto los...

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same Lis...

A large literature has used tests for Granger (1969) non-causality, GNC, to examine the interaction of military spending with the economy. Such tests answer a specific although quite limited question: can one reject the null hypothesis that one variable does not help predict another? If one can...