In this paper we extend the classical chain-ladder claims reserving method using fuzzy methods. Therefore, we derive new estimators for the claims development factors as well as new predictors for the ultimate claims. The advantage in using fuzzy numbers lies in the fact that the model...

Actuaries working in claims reserving are often faced, among others, with the following two tasks: the prediction of future outstanding loss liabilities, as well as the quantification of their risk. Within claims reserving there exist various methods in which vagueness and subjective judgement...

One of the main tasks in non-life insurance is the prediction of outstanding loss liabilities for run-off portfolios. Additionally, the quantification of the prediction uncertainty is also of great interest. In this paper we look at this actuarial problem in a bivariate framework, i.e. we assume...

In this paper we make an empirical analysis of a wide range of claims development trapezoids following Benford's law. In particular we determine Benfors's law for different characteristic factors depending on claims development triangles/trapezoids. These characteristic factors are the...

In this paper we use a wide range of development trapezoids for an analysis of ultimate claims reserve. Thereby, the ultimate claims reserve will be calculated using the classical Chain-Ladder reserving method on the one side and, on the other side, the calculation of the ultimate claims reserve...

In the present paper we analyse how the estimators from Merz u. Wüthrich (2007) could be generalised to the case of N correlated run-off triangles. The simultaneous view on N correlated subportfolios is motivated by the fact, that in practice a run-off portfolio often has to be divided in...