The paper considers an agent who must choose an action today under uncertainty about the consequence of any chosen action but without having in mind a complete list of all the contingencies that could influence outcomes. She conceives of some relevant (subjective) contingencies but she is aware...

Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit...

Call an economic model incomplete if it does not generate a probabilistic prediction even given knowledge of all parameter values. We propose a method of inference about unknown parameters for such models that is robust to heterogeneity and dependence of unknown form. The key is a Central Limit...

Individuals often lose confidence in their prospects as they approach the `moment of truth.' An axiomatic model of such individuals is provided. The model adapts and extends (by relaxing the Independence axiom) Gul and Pesendorfer's model of temptation and self-control to capture an individual...

This paper models an agent in a multi-period setting who does not update according to Bayes' Rule, and who is self-aware and anticipates her updating behavior when formulating plans. Choice-theoretic axiomatic foundations are provided to capture updating biases that reflect excessive weight...

The de Finetti Theorem is a cornerstone of the Bayesian approach. Bernardo (1996) writes that its "message is very clear: if a sequence of observations is judged to be exchangeable, then any subset of them must be regarded as a random sample from some model, and there exists a prior distribution...

A Borel probability measure is residual if it gives measure zero to all meager subsets. We first give some existence results about this class of measures. Then they are applied in order to get some non-existence results for probability measures defined on Boolean algebras. This is done on the...

Let X be a topological space, m a probability measure defined on the Baire s -field on X, and m ' a probability measure on teh Borel s -field which extends m. In the first part of the paper we deal with the relations existing between the ranges of m and m. In particular, we show cases in which...

In this paper we considera continuous subjective expected unity model with a connected space of consequences (CSEU, for brevity). This class of models has recently received attention (see Wakker (1989)). Like in Savage (1954), we consider a finitely additive probability measure on a...

A coalitional game is a real-valued set function v defined on an algebra F of subsets of a space X such that v(0)=0. We prove the existence of a one-to-one correspondence between coalitional games bounded with respect to the composition norm and countably additive measures defined on an...