This article examines the effectiveness of a subjective probability approach to quantify three-category qualitative responses from expectations surveys. Since one cannot make a judgment on the validity of estimated expectations by comparing them with ex post outcomes, the authors use the...

The joint subjective probabilities for negative GDP growth during two consecutive quarters obtained from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) are evaluated as predictors of cyclical downturns in the economy using the prequential approach of Dawid (1984) and the skill score decomposition...

Based on the 1992 US National Survey of Veterans, we analyzed veterans’ inpatient and outpatient health care utilization patterns by estimating count data two-part hurdle models. We also identified factors that affect veterans’ choice of health care between VA and non-VA facilities using...