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Predicting birth-rates through German micro-census data: a comparison of probit and Boolean regression
Hufnagel, Rainer - Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, Westfälische … - 2008
Boolean Regression. The data forming the basis for this investigation are from the German Micro-census waves of 1996 2002 and … comprise about 400 000 observations. Boolean Regression is used to predict how birth events depend on the socio …-economic characteristics of women and their male partners. Boolean Regression is compared to Probit. The data set is split into two halves in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10008462093
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Priors and Posterior Computation in Linear Endogenous Variable Models with Imperfect Instruments
Chan, Joshua C.C.; Tobias, Justin L. - College of Business and Economics, Australian National … - 2012
Estimation in models with endogeneity concerns typically begins by searching for instruments. This search is inherently subjective and identification is generally achieved upon imposing the researcher's strong prior belief that such variables have no conditional impacts on the outcome. Results...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011107146
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Bayesian Demographic Modeling and Forecasting: An Application to U.S. Mortality
Reichmuth, Wolfgang; Sarferaz, Samad - Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, … - 2008
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005784846
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Modeling Mortality with a Bayesian Vector Autoregression
Njenga, Carolyn; Sherris, Michael - ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research … - 2011
Mortality risk models have been developed to capture trends and common factors driving mortality improvement. Multiple factor models take many forms and are often developed and fitted to older ages. In order to capture trends from young ages it is necessary to take into account the richer age...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010551692
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Modeling and Forecasting Age-Specific Mortality: A Bayesian Approach
Reichmuth, Wolfgang; Sarferaz, Samad - Sonderforschungsbereich 649: Ökonomisches Risiko, … - 2008
We present a new way to model age-specific demographic variables with the example of age-specific mortality in the U.S., building on the Lee-Carter approach and extending it in several dimensions. We incorporate covariates and model their dynamics jointly with the latent variables underlying...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010609985
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European Union Economy System Dynamic Model Development
Skribans, Valerijs - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2012
The formation of the European Union (EU) is the one of the biggest political – economic events of the last 50 years. The aim of this study is to develop EU economy functioning system dynamic model. Main research method is system dynamics. General scheme of EU economy system dynamic model is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259562
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Constructing an Urban Microsimulation Model to Assess the Influence of Demographics on Heat Consumption
M. Esteban Muñoz H.; Peters, Irene - In: International Journal of Microsimulation 7 (2014) 1, pp. 127-157
We present ongoing work on the construction of a spatial microsimulation model to assess the influence of demographics on residential heat consumption for Hamburg, Germany. Demographics are important for urban energy planning as: (1) Buildings are becoming more energy-efficient and building...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010800865
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A Review of Spatial Microsimulation Methods
Tanton, Robert - In: International Journal of Microsimulation 7 (2014) 1, pp. 4-25
This paper outlines a framework for spatial microsimulation models, gives some reasons why someone may want to use a spatial microsimulation model, describes the development of spatial microsimulation over the last 30 years, summarises the different methods currently used for spatial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010800869
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Governments and the Market for Longevity-Indexed Bonds
Antolín, Pablo; Blommestein, Hans J. - Directorate for Financial, Fiscal and Enterprises … - 2007
Uncertainty about length of life, longevity risk, is a growing financial problem for pension funds and annuity providers. They would like to transfer longevity risk away to institutions better placed to deal with it. Unfortunately, there is a lack of financial instruments to hedge against this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004962914
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Longevity Risk and Private Pensions
Antolín, Pablo - Directorate for Financial, Fiscal and Enterprises … - 2007
This paper examines how uncertainty regarding future mortality and life expectancy outcomes, i.e. longevity risk, affects employer-provided defined benefit (DB) private pension plans liabilities. The paper argues that to assess uncertainty and associated risks adequately, a stochastic approach...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004962925