The negative binomial distribution (NBD) has been widely used in marketing for modeling purchase frequency counts, particularly in packaged goods contexts. A key managerially relevant use of this model is Conditional Trend Analysis (CTA)—a method of benchmarking future sales utilizing the NBD...

This research examines long-term loyalty change in a wide variety of FMCG categories in the UK and the USA, over time periods ranging from six to thirteen years. The study uses three loyalty measures: polarization index (φ), average brand share of requirements (SCR), and average repertoire...

Preference for water quality and its nonmarket valuation can be used to inform the development of pricing policies and long term supply strategies. Tap water quality is a household concern. The objective status quo of water provision varies between households and not between individuals within...

On average, respondents who give a positive answer to a binary free choice attitude question are NOT more likely, if surveyed again, to respond positively than to response negatively. However, stronger brands obtain more repeated positive answers. Our model shows why these two effects have to...

This paper reports a new theorem and proof for optimizing the advertising budget. The theorem is that the optimal rate of advertising is equal to gross profit multiplied by advertising elasticity. This does not involve a ratio of elasticities, and so is an advance on the Dorfman-Steiner theorem...

While customer acquisition is clearly important for new brands, mature brands are often said to rely on defection management for maintenance and growth. Yet the theory to support this approach has been subject to very little empirical investigation. How do brands actually increase the size of...

This paper reports a new theorem and proof for optimizing the advertising budget. The theorem is that the optimal rate of advertising is equal to gross profit multiplied by advertising elasticity. This does not involve a ratio of elasticities, and so is an advance on the Dorfman-Steiner theorem...

The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions of relevant papers, incorrect references, and quotation errors that misreport findings. We discuss key studies in these areas. We then examine citations to Estimating nonresponse...

Prior research found that people’s assessments of relative competence predicted the outcome of Senate and Congressional races. We hypothesized that snap judgments of "facial competence" would provide useful forecasts of the popular vote in presidential primaries before the candidates become...