In this paper I built forecasts intervals for the inflation rate in Romania, using the quarterly predicted values provided by the National Bank of Romania for 2007-2010. First, I used the historical errors method, which is the most used method, especially by the central banks. Forecast intervals...

Many researchers are interested in making predictions for macroeconomic variables, but few of them studied the accuracy of their forecasts. The problem is essential, especially in crisis periods, because from many forecasts made for the same indicator only one or few are the most accurate. In...

Purpose – The purpose of the research is to find a suitable strategy to improve the SPF predictions for inflation. Design/methodology/approach – some alternative forecasts for the annual rate of change for the HICP for EU were developed, their accuracy was evaluated, using proper accuracy...

In this paper article, two strategies based on the econometric approach are proposed in order to improve the forecast accuracy of GDP index in Romania. First, the index is predicted starting from an econometric model that reflects the relationship between the GDP index and the GDP deflator....

Econometric modeling of the exchange rate saw successive progresses, the forecasts based on the ‘70s models having a rather good accuracy, as recent researches showed. In order to explain the monthly evolution of RON/USA exchange rate during 2007-June 2011, I used three econometric models: a...

In this study some alternative forecasts for the unemployment rate of USA made by four institutions (International Monetary Fund (IMF), Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Blue Chips (BC)) are evaluated regarding the accuracy and...

In this paper I built forecasts intervals for the inflation rate in Romania, using the quarterly predicted values provided by the National Bank of Romania for 2007-2010. First, I used the historical errors method, which is the most used method, especially by the central banks. Forecast intervals...

Many researchers are interested in making predictions for macroeconomic variables, but few of them studied the accuracy of their forecasts. The problem is essential, especially in crisis periods, because from many forecasts made for the same indicator only one or few are the most accurate. In...

In this article, the GDP deflator is predicted starting from econometric models of historical errors of forecasts based on Dobrescu macromodel. In Romania, a significant relationship between GDP deflator and GDP index predictions was not confirmed. However, there is an important dependence...

The simple econometric models for the exchange rate, according to recent researches, generates the forecasts with the highest degree of accuracy. This type of models (Simultaneous Equations Model, MA(1) Procedure, Model with lagged variables) is used to describe the evolution of the average...