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We show that expected returns on US stocks and all major global stock market indices have a particular form of non-linear dependence on previous returns. The expected sign of returns tends to reverse after large price movements and trends tend to continue after small movements. The observed...
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This study aims to overcome the problem of dimensionality, accurate estimation, and forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and … bulk distribution components. This implies that the combination of a stochastic econometric model with extreme value theory …
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