We use a simple nonlinear commodity market model to illustrate the impact of recent reforms of the CAP on the variability of EU and world wheat prices. Second, within an expected utility framework we estimate the transfer and risk effects on producer welfare due to market liberalizing reforms....

A dynamic Bayesian Vector Autoregressive model of the U.S. dairy price complex is estimated based on the Normal-Wishart distribution. The Gibbs sample technique is use with the Normal-Wishart distribution to provide conditional forecasts on the future time-paths of the model variables. The...

The 2003 reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy of the Euro-pean Union allowed for discretionary implementation among member states. Discretion was allowed with respect to the timing and the degree of decoupling of policy support. Differences among member states were particularly apparent in...

We illustrate how CAP policy reforms influence the transmission of world prices to domestic markets. Monthly wheat price data in Germany are used to obtain price transmission elasticities. Correctly accounting for structural breaks and the time series properties of the data yield transmission...

Global food demand is estimated from population projections of the United Nations and food supply is projected from Food and Agriculture Organization yield data to quantify the global food supply-demand balance for 2025 and 2050. The eight food categories examined account for 95 percent of...