directional forecasts can provide a useful framework to assess the economic forecast value when loss functions (or success … directional forecast value is a readily available alternative to the commonly used squared error loss criterion. -- Directional … forecasts ; directional forecast value ; forecast evaluation ; economic forecast value ; mean squared forecast error ; mean …

Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has … general-equilibrium system. Next, we point out some anomalies with the theory: mounting evidence against constant trade …

Gravity as both fact and theory is one of the great success stories of recent research on international trade, and has … general-equilibrium system. Next, we point out some anomalies with the theory: mounting evidence against constant trade …

I evaluate German export growth and import growth forecasts published by eight professional forecasters for the years … errors. For the full time period, I find that both export and import growth forecasts are weakly but not strongly efficient …. Unbiasedness depends on the forecast horizon being analyzed, with longer-term four-quarter-ahead forecasts being biased. I …

I analyze the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years … order to model links between forecast errors and a forecaster's information set, consisting of several trade and other … to check whether the Mahalanobis distance between the predicted forecast errors for the trade forecasts and actual …

absolute forecast errors nonlinear models outperform both, a common linear model and some specification building on the …

The object of this paper is to nowcast, forecast and track changes in Tunisian economic activity during normal and … normal times, meaning before the COVID19 period. Forecast errors derived from low frequency models including crisis periods …

direction. We estimated the standard import equation for 38 advanced and developing countries over the period 1995-2015, using … an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand (IAD), calculated from input-output tables at country level, and …