Successfully predicting that something will become a big hit seems impressive. Managers and entrepreneurs who have made successful predictions and have invested money on this basis are promoted, become rich, and may end up on the cover of business magazines. In this paper, we show that an...

To what extent can one infer that superior capabilities are driving sustained superior performance? Modeling performance as some combination of differences in capabilities and processes of cumulative advantage, we argue that a Bayesian framework in which decision makers take into account the...

To resolve the mixed and sometimes contradictory results regarding the effect of performance feedback on the tendency and timing to expand abroad, we develop a theoretical framework that takes opportunity costs into account. Our findings show a non-linear relationship, mostly an inverted...