Most forecasting models often fail to produce appropriate forecasts because they are built on the assumption that data is being generated from only one stochastic process. However, in many real world problems, the time series data are generated from one stochastic process initially and then...

In this study, we explore the issue of how to enhance forecast of the box office sales, an all-time question for managers in the motion picture industry. The conceptual core of our approach is the expected sales. The expected sales of agents in the movie market (i.e. screen managers at supply...

It is well known that an unexpected level change in time series can cause persistent forecasting errors, depending on the change size and the underlying time series process. This relationship is demonstrated particularly with macroeconomic and financial time series. Forecasting literature...

We analyze the effects of non-financial incentives that provide relative performance feedback on judgmental forecasting performance. Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we find that the provision of such non-financial incentives improves judgmental forecasting accuracy, especially when...

Using a controlled laboratory experiment, we test the effect of individual versus group when making judgmental forecasting adjustments. When individuals make decisions, especially that are exacting task like forecasting, they often feel anxious. Yet, when groups make decisions, they feel less...

The repeated occurrences of interventions in observations make most forecasting models fail to produce appropriate forecasts. The purpose of this study is to propose the adaptive forecasting procedure based on sequential identifications of interventions and adjusting forecast to them in general...

This study suggests a model to forecast individual survival times with diagnosis record as covariates. The dataset is retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database of the National Cancer Institute. It consists of demographic variables such as individual age,...